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Shrewd and sensible – how Tottenham should approach the summer transfer window

José Mourinho’s first first full season as Spurs coach hasn’t gone precisely to plan thus far. After guiding the team to sixth-place starting in November of 2019 when he replaced Mauricio Pochettino, Spurs have flirted with the top of the table this season but have more recently made it clear that they will likely find themselves in the all too familiar fight for a top four spot.

Since Mourinho, the serial medalist, arrived at Spurs the club has brought in 9 new players. Gedson Fernandes and Carlos Vinícius arrived on loan from Benfica, Giovani Lo Celso made his loan move permanent and Dutch forward Steven Bergwijn signed from PSV. Wolves’ Matt Doherty and Swansea City’s Welshman Joe Rodon arrived as defensive cover and the two most influential signings of Mourinho’s tenure came in the form of Pierre-Emile Höjberg from Southampton and Sergio Reguilón from Real Madrid. Last but certainly not least hyped, Gareth Bale made his return to London seven years after leaving for Real Madrid.

Signing Bale suggested that Tottenham were attempting to do what I believe they ought to have done: sign winners. Of course they were hoping that Bale would have glimpses of his former self, pre-Zidane bust up(s). But what they would certainly be getting, no matter if he showed those glimpses or not, was a player who had won. In his time with the Spanish giants Bale had become a true Galáctico, lifting trophy after trophy with some of the best players in world football. They need more of that, even if the likes of Moussa Sissoko and Hugo Lloris have won a World Cup, since Mourinho craves strong-minded players who do everything required to win matches and, in the long run, trophies.

Tactical needs

When looking at recruitment, we must keep in mind the type of football a team tries to play. Under Mourinho, Tottenham often sit deep and look to protect space, inviting teams on to them, before counter-attacking at pace. As such, quick attackers capable of combining on the run are crucial. That’s why Son Heung-Min has been such a revelation under the Portuguese. Harry Kane also plays a more withdrawn role than previously as he often drops out of the opposition’s defensive line to get on the ball with the two wingers then aggressively attacking the space vacated by Kane’s movement with diagonal runs in-behind the defence.

How Spurs often rotate in attack with Kane dropping off and the wingers attacking the spaces he vacates with his movement.

But Mourinho’s Tottenham have often struggled when forced to dictate games in their possession play. Mourinho believes in granting his attackers freedom in the offensive phase and, lacking a succint, coherent plan in possession, Mourinho needs very creative and individually talented players who are capable of creating chances out of nothing against packed defences. The creative free-spirits must then be balanced by a strong base behind them, with Mourinho’s teams often organised with four attacking players and six defensive players providing Mourinho’s much sought-after balance.

It’s obvious that Spurs can improve their squad further this summer, and I feel as though there should be an opportunity to invest in a new centre-back, one or two new central midfielders and two attackers. While some Spurs fans already cast their eyes at attacking coaches like Graham Potter, Julian Nagelsmann or Erik ten Hag, Mourinho has a contract stretching to 2023 and, if results don’t really deteriorate to the point that European football is out of the question, it’s hard to see him leave for at least another year. Thus, Spurs need to strengthen the team to suit Mourinho’s style of play, but they must balance Mourinho’s short term solutions with clever long-term investment of the sort they did last summer when Rodon joined.

Here follows our suggestions for Tottenham to have a look at.

Forwards

Ángel Di Maria Argentine Paris Saint-Germain 32 years old Winger

Having played for Mourinho at Real Madrid, the creative attacker has won trophies and become a favorite accessory player to Ronaldo, Neymar and Messi at Madrid, PSG and the Argentina National team, respectively. The void left by Christian Eriksen’s departure was meant to be filled in part by club record signing Tanguy Ndombele from Lyon. The Frenchman has improved massively this season, but can’t do it all on his own so there is still a lack of service to front man Harry Kane. Di Maria has been one of the best providers in Europe for 10 years, recording double digit assists in 8 of his last 11 seasons.

Compared to the challengers for the right-sided attacking midfield position in Mourinho’s 4-2-3-1 (Bergwijn, Erik Lamela and Lucas Moura), Di Maria is head and shoulders clear of the rest statistically. His expected assist rate of 0.5 is closest challenged by Bergwijn at 0.09, his 3.09 key passes is way above Bergwijn’s 0.89 and his 6.11 shot creating actions is almost double the number of Lamela’s 3.33. He is also clear of the others in terms of progressive carries (8.59 vs Lamela’s 7.58, Bergwijn’s 4.11 and Moura’s 4.83). Finally, he is more dangerous in front of goal. Lamela and Bergwijn are yet to score this season while Moura has one. Di Maria’s got four goals in Ligue 1 from to go with his seven assists. His experience and trophy cabinet are reasons enough to believe that he would bring the extra bit of shine and experience to the Spurs dressing room that they need to see themselves as title contenders.

Memphis Depay Dutch Olympique Lyon 26 years old Forward

The Dutchman has unfinished business in the Premier League after a difficult spell with Manchester United from 2015-2017 where he was only able to showcase a fraction of his capabilities. Since moving to France the attacker has exploded at Lyon, scoring goals at will and leading them on an improbable Champions League run past Manchester City and into the semi-finals where they bowed out against Bayern Munich. He is out of contract in the summer and would be an ideal strike option alongside the over-relied upon Harry Kane. Depay was at United when Mourinho took over, and the Portuguese went on to sell him, but people tend to forget quickly in football and Depay is a much better player now than he was back then.

So far this season, Tottenham have depended on Son and Kane in an absurd, unsustainable and, if one of them gets injured as with Kane at the moment, irresponsible manner. The pair has recorded 24 goals while the whole rest of the team has only compiled 10. It’s clear that Kane and Son share the goalscoring burden of the side, but they are also the chief creators, having recorded 17 of Tottenham’s 29 assists between them. Depay can undoubtedly help in both areas. Tactically, he would fit very well in the role Kane plays, starting as a number 9 and then dropping off to link play and create opportunities with through balls for runners. He could also play on either flank, perhaps not as a runner such as Son, but in a slightly different, more creative role. Depay could also play alongside Kane, or rotate with Ndombele in the attacking midfielder role.

Statistically, Depay has a higher expected goal and expected assist score than Kane (0.97 per 90 vs Kane’s 0.78). He also edges Kane for key passes (2.89 vs 1.47) and passes into the penalty area (1.8 vs 1.4). Depay also impresses in terms of shot creating actions, creatin 5.48 shots per 90 compared to Kane’s 3.42. He presses less (1.96 successful pressures vs Kane’s 3.21) but dribbles more (4.28 vs 2.17). Kane is a superior goalscorer, as twelve league goals from an xG of 9.7 suggest, but Depay scores at a very sustainable rate of eleven goals from an xG of 10.9. With the Dutchman available on a free, this is a definite no-brainer for Spurs. They would get a top class creator, a good goalscorer and allround attacking talent for free (bar signing-on fees etc). Given that Depay looked destined for Barcelona last summer, his signature would represent a real coup by Spurs. Players like Depay and Di Maria are needed to ease the load on these attackers while at the same time probably increase the numbers of these already prolific goal scorers.

Central midfield

James Ward-Prowse English Southampton FC 26 years old Central midfield

At the time, the departure of Moussa Dembélé didn’t appear to be of major concern. Still, he has left a hole in the center of the field that nobody has been able to fill. Defensively Höjberg is terrific and he is an excellent pass-and-move player but in fairness, he doesn’t offer loads in the way of dynamism and Harry Winks has been limited to just 6 starts this season by Mourinho. While dynamic definitely is the word to describe Moussa Sissoko, Spurs need to strenghten in central midfield. They could do worse than look at Höjbjerg’s former teammate, James Ward-Prowse. The 26-year-old would be difficult to pry away from Southampton, having risen through the Saints academy to now captaining the team, leading by example and embodying everything it means to represent Southampton with his industrious performances. Ward-Prowse has had a stellar season to date, and would be an upgrade on Sissoko in almost every aspect. As per FBref.com, Ward-Prowse beats Sissoko for tackles won (1.57 vs 1.22), successful pressures (4.57 vs 4.05) and interceptions (1.24 vs 1.01), highlighting how Ward-Prowse would contribute out of possession. Naturally, stats like these are indicative of how their current teams play, so Ward-Prowse might not record the same numbers in a team that presses less than his current side, but these are the numbers we can look at the moment.

In possession, Ward-Prowse also comes out on top. He completes more passes (57.8 vs 37.0), creates more shots (2.14 vs 1.01), has a superior expected assist score (2.2 vs 0.5), makes more key passes (1.43 vs 0.34) and has four goals and five assists to Sissoko’s none in either category. Adding Ward-Prowse’s stunning set-piece delivery and goalscoring threat and we have a no-brainer of a deal for Spurs to make. The Englishman would improve Spurs’ midfield in every aspect, which would also help against low defences when his superb crossing can come in handy in trying to break down a stubborn defence. There’s no telling what kind of levels he could reach if training and playing every day with some of the best players in the league.

Javi Martinez Spanish Bayern Munich 32 years old Central midfielder

To say that this one is a long-shot is an understatement. More like a Ronaldo vs. Porto for Manchester United long-shot. With his contract with Bayern set to expire in the summer, it seems most likely that he will return home to Athletic Club in Bilbao having spent 9 years with the German giants. But if he wants to check the Premier League off of his footballing bucket list then Tottenham should jump at the chance to sign him, even if only for a year. Ushering in players who have won trophies is the most important thing the club can do right now and if they are available for free it makes all the sense in the world.

Tactically, Martinez would contribute a lot. He has played under some of the best tacticians in the game such as Pep Guardiola and Marcelo Bielsa and can perform at a world class level in defence and in midfield. Since the Basque has barely played this season for Bayern, we compare his stats from last season to Höjbjerg’s for this. Defensively, Höjbjerg performs better at tackles won (2.43 for the Dane vs 1.13 for Martinez) and successful pressures (5.67 vs 3.49) while Martinez is superior in terms of interceptions (1.42 vs 0.95) and aerial duels (Martinez wins 3.58 per 90 at a 76% win rate to Höjbjerg’s 1.33 won at a rate of 53.8%).

In possession, Martinez completes more passes (70.7 vs 61.9) at a better completion rate (91% vs 88%). In terms of long passes, which can be crucial for a counter-attacking team, Martinez completes 12.9 at 85% compared to Höjbjerg’s 8.81 at 78%. Martinez is also a superior ball carrier and for progressive carries, Martinez recorded 5.47 such carries vs 3.62 for Höjbjerg. It seems obvious, then, that Martinez would be a very good signing to rotate with Höjbjerg as they can be alternated or even used alongside each other in certain games.

Centre-back

Sven Botman Dutch LOSC Lille 21 years old Centre-back

Adding experience is one thing, but youth and genuine potential is another necessary component to a trophy-winning team. Sven Botman is the latest towering central defender produced by the Netherlands and the famed Ajax academy. The left-footed 21-year-old is valued at around $30 million and would be avery sensible addition. Toby Alderweireld is 32 years old soon and Tottenham’s remaining central defender options include Davinson Sanchez, Joe Rodon and Eric Dier. Mourinho has all but stated at a press conference that he lacks confidence in Sanchez while Rodon is still coming into his own at a much bigger club. The centre of defence is somewhere that Spurs will have to invest in sooner than later.

Botman ticks all the boxes. The left-footed defender would add quality to Tottenham’s build-up and that in itself could help Spurs attack when faced by an organised defence. Botman completes more passes than both Dier and Alderweireld (60.8 vs Dier’s 47.1 and Alderweireld’s 37.4) and at a much higher completion rate of 87.4% vs Dier’s 83.8% and the Belgian’s 80.2%. His long passing is also good at a completion rate of 70% which betters both Dier and Alderweireld. Botman can also step out of defence with the ball, making 3.43 progressive carries per 90 compared to Dier’s 2.37 and Alderweireld’s 2.02.

Defensively, Botman comes off well too. He wins more tackles (0.96 vs Dier’s 0.42 and Alderweireld’s 0.7), makes more interceptions (1.09 vs 0.63 and 0.08) and wins more of his aerial duels (a win rate of69.6% to Dier’s 67% and Alderweireld’s 58%). It’s safe to say that big things are expected from the 21-year-old in the coming seasons, so if Spurs can pick him up now they would make a very shrewd investment.

Conclusion

If these delas were completed, Tottenham’s team could look something like below next season. With Depay also joining as an attacking option, Tottenham would have a very good squad, very strong starting eleven and a nice age profile with young players (Botman, Ndombele, Reguilón), players in or approaching their prime (Ward-Prowse, Höjbjerg, Dier, Kane, Son, Depay) and experienced players who know what is needed to win (Di Maria, Lloris, Martinez). Add the back-up players Spurs already possess and you would have a team ready to challenge for honours.

These signings aren’ unreasonable. Ambitious? Sure. But with the recent investment in a brand new stadium and training facilities, ambition is already a key word around north London. Spurs aren’t far away from being a team that can compete for the biggest trophies but it’s the initial trophy that is the most elusive. To get there, they need to invest in sensible long-term options such as Botman, Depay or Ward-Prowse as well as in experienced short-term class such as Martinez and Di Maria.

Although their current brand of football and recent form have been nothing short of disastrous, they have a manager who knows how to win. What they don’t have, are players that know how to win. Or rather, players who have won anything significant (bar Sissoko and Lloris, obviously). An injection of class and quality can be contagious, just look at Bruno Fernandes’ impact at Manchester United or that of Ruben Dias at Manchester City. Signing Depay might turn Steven Bergwijn into a superstar. Signing Angel Di Maria might somehow make Erik Lamela into the player Spurs thought they were signing from AS Roma years ago.

It’s not impossible and if Tottenham are going to challenge for any silverware, it’s essential. As it stands, Mourinho sorely needs more quality and experience at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. These shrewd, smart and sensible additions could go a long way in that quest.

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