It’s never as bad as it seems; it’s never as good as it seems. Juventus are certainly hoping for the former since Andrea Pirlo has had a tough first season in management, with Juventus looking certain to miss out on the Italian league title for the first time since 2011. Their nine-year dominance is ending, with former Juventus coach Antonio Conte wrestling the Scudetto back to the city of Milan for the first time since Max Allegri’s AC Milan won the trophy ten years ago. To make matters worse, Pirlo’s Juventus went out to FC Porto in the last-16 of the Champions League in dramatic fashion. Of course, Pirlo has steered Juve to one trophy, the Supercoppa, and has the chance to add the Coppa Italia with a final against Atalanta coming up later this spring.
However, losing their stranglehold on the title is a tough blow, especially since Inter is run by Beppe Marotta, the former Juve CEO who was ousted when the club rearranged its organisation a few years ago, and Conte, who left Juventus in acrimonious circumstances in 2014 after steering the club to three straight Scudetti. Pirlo looks set to stay for at least another season, though, as the Juventus hierarchy seems to believe in him. This article will look at the tactics Pirlo deploys through tactical analysis, how those tactics could be tweaked, and how Juventus could approach the summer transfer window in a bid to rejuvenate the club.
Tactics
Defensively, Pirlo’s tactics are quite straightforward. They defend in a compact 4-4-2 that focuses on creating strong overloads around the ball. They press high occassionally, often by allowing one of the central midfielders break out of the shape to press the opposition’s pivot, but mostly drop into a mid-block where they are comfortable with the opposition having the ball in their defense. When opponents start to threaten, Juve look to be aggressive, hence why someone like Weston McKennie played a big role earlier on in the season. Overall, Juventus have been solid defensively, but have suffered from a lot of individual mistakes, particularly against Porto in the Champions League and Torino at the weekend.
Pirlo’s attacking tactics are about controlling possession by creating passing triangles and passing diamonds around the ball-carrier to ensure smooth progression of the ball. This is evident in the staggering of Juve’s players in central areas, as the players often rotate in and out of their starting positions. He evidently wants to move the ball patiently around the back before playing into players positioned behind the opponent’s midfield from where the speed of the attack intensifies and the strikers look to get in behind the defensive line. This focus on getting players into central positions is the reason for the constant positional rotations we see from Juventus. From their 4-4-2 out of possession, the most common rotation has seen one of the wingers move into central areas while the other maintains width. The full-backs act in a similar manner, with one providing width and the other positioned in central areas, either in a situational back-three (as in the image below) or in midfield as an extra midfielder. The image below highlights this rotation.
One intriguing, and innovative, attacking setup Pirlo has deployed this season was the one used against Inter in the return leg of their Coppa Italia semi final. As you can see in the image below, the two full-backs Danilo and Alex Sandro rotated into midfield while both wingers, Federico Bernardeschi and Juan Cuadrado maintained full width. One of the central midfielders would drop in as a single pivot just in front of the two centre-backs while the other would place himself in front of his partner. Juve played out of a 4-4-1-1 formation in this game with Dejan Kulusevski as the number 10 behind Cristiano Ronaldo, which meant Juve created a midfield diamond which included a fifth central midfielder in the middle of the diamond. Off the top of my mind, I’ve never seen a team play in that manner.
The image below highlights how Juventus looked to play out from the back against Inter with their five-man midfield diamond. Juventus dominated the first half and were successful in their counter-pressing with so many players in central positions ready to stop counter-attacks. This innovative setup would be very intriguing to see Pirlo implement more going forward to break out the often rigid attacking that we sometimes see when they play both Ronaldo and Alvaro Morata up front.
When only playing one, as in the setup above, Juve have often been more fluid and we have seen some of Pirlo’s ideas flourish more. For instance, Pirlo believes in positional flexibility and that players should be able to play in almost any position and therefore be multifunctional. We saw this in the game against Inter with the positioning of the full-backs but also the balancing movements of Bernardeschi, Kulusevski and Ronaldo who often interchanged positions that could see Ronaldo at the left wing and Bernardeschi as the 10 with Kulusevski down the middle. If Pirlo gets the time, it would be fascinating to see if he can implement these ideas further on a more regular basis.
Despite all the players Pirlo look to get into central areas, the wide areas have been where Juventus have mostly looked to create chances from. By his own admission, Pirlo only wants two players positioned in the wide areas, one on each wing, while the remaining players position themselves centrally. Thus, players like Federico Chiesa and Juan Cuadrado have been crucial as they can create chances and goals thanks to their wide play. However, Juventus sometimes appear predictable and over-reliant on crosses, despite Ronaldo and Morata’s strength in the air. Morata is an interesting player since he has only managed seven goals in the league and Juventus have often been rigid when both Ronaldo and Morata have started up front, but he leads Serie A’s assist chart with nine assists. Therefore, he has been a decent signing, but it’s also obvious that Juventus need more creativity in central areas to improve their ability to break down teams.
As mentioned, it’s never as bad as it seems. Understat.com’s xG statistics is proof of that with Juve’s performances actually warranting top spot. They’ve under-achieved compared to their expected points (56 points from an xPTS of 60.85) while Inter has over-performed their expected points by over 10 points. That suggests Pirlo’s Juve hasn’t been as bad as what has often been made out. They are Juventus, though, and are always expected to win. Looking at the underlying stats, we can see that they have the best defensive record in the league, both in terms of goals conceded and in terms of xGA (expected goals against). They’ve completed more passes per 90 minutes than any other team and are second for xG per 90, but has only scored 56 goals from an xG of 62.58. They are only third best for shot-creating actions and key passes behind Atalanta and Napoli. As such, they remain top of the pile defensively but aren’t as dangerous or prolific going forward.
How can Pirlo improve then? Since the defensive side is good enough, we feel he can improve the team going forward by having more of a consistent presence between the lines of the opposition’s defence and midfield. We know Pirlol ikes a fluid setup, but having someone to consistently occupy the half-spaces behind the opponent’s midfield line would be beneficial. That could be done with mezzale (the 8s) pushing up or by having one inverted winger and a number 10. A midfield three with a stable presence as a pivot is a good start and then inverted full-backs in a 4-3-3 could free up the eights to move higher could be a good solution as it would allow Juve’s excellent wingers to do what they do best in keeping width. If a back-three is required in some games, a 3-4-2-1 or even 3-5-2 with very attacking wing-backs would also work well. In both those systems, Juventus could still seamlessly defend in Pirlo’s preferred 4-4-2, dominate possession, naturally create his coveted triangles and diamond as well as improve their quality in attack as they would threaten more from central areas too. Some pinpointed signings might be necessary, though.
What Juve need to do is to stagger the midfield in a way that allows them to dominate possession, set up well to prepare for their counter-press, and create players between the lines of the opposition. Two attacking, creative 8s playing behind the opponent’s midfield who can thread passes through to Ronaldo or the quick wingers would be a good place to start. A suggested tactical formation can be seen below.
How Pirlo could tweak Juve’s tactical setup to improve their ability to dominate the ball in central areas.
Transfers
Juventus used to rule the transfer market. There was a time when they signed players like Paul Pogba, Carlos Tevez, Arturo Vidal, Sami Khedira and Dani Alves without parting with more than a few euros. They still signed some of the best players in Italy, such as Gonzalo Higuain, Miralem Pjanić and Paulo Dybala. In recent years, they’ve lost their way in this regard and the squad has consequently got worse. That has certainly been the case since Fabio Paratici replaced Beppe Marotta as the main man at the club. As such, they must start to do better if Paratici wants to keep his job. We’ve identified a few areas where we feel Juve can improve the squad and suggested some sensible additions.
Centre-back
Juventus boast one of the strongest centre-back lineups in Europe with Leonardo Bonucci, Matthijs De Ligt, Merih Demiral and Giorgio Chiellini but it would not be a stretch to say that their best centre-back has played for a different team this season. The Argentinian Cristian Romero has spent this season at Atalanta and has performed as one of the standout centre-backs in all of Europe. Atalanta retain an option to buy but Juventus really should bring him back. The 22-year-old has impressed in the Champions League too and would bring qualities that could allow Juve to play a higher defensive line thanks to his aggressive nature of defending. That nature makes it natural for him to step up to stop counter-attacks before they even have a chance of developing and his speed is a great asset too. According to fbref.com, Romero is in the 98 or 99 percentile for most defensive actions among centre-backs across Europe, which highlights his quality. The only caveat would be that Romero has mostly played in man-orientated defensive systems which would mean a period to bed in to Pirlo’s ball-oriented defensive system is necessary.
Juve are quite well stacked at full-back with Danilo a clear Pirlo favourite and Juan Cuadrado a capable option too. Alex Sandro is a very good left-back and Gianluca Frabotta has had a promising first season in the first team. Juve still have Mattia De Sciglio out on loan and the young left-back Luca Pellegrini is always putting up good numbers wherever he plays. Pellegrini should come back and really challenge Frabotta for the place as Sandro’s understudy.
Defensive midfield
One thing that seems frightingly obvious is that Pirlo’s side lacks that a consistent presence at the base of midfield. Someone who can orchestrate attacks, provide creative passing and a solid defensive base is crucial for a top team in 2021. Rodrigo Bentancur could be that player, but he seems more suited to playing as an 8, a mezzala, for now. Adrien Rabiot is not a defensive midfielder, and neither is Arthur, who has failed to replace the creative output of his predecessor, Pjanić. As per fbref, the Bosnian averaged 3.83 shot creating actions per 90 minutes compared to Arthur’s 1.92 as well as 1.94 key passes to the Brazilian’s 1.25. Pjanić also contributed six assists while Arthur still hasn’t provided a single one.
This loss of creativity hasn’t been replaced, but the excellent Sassuolo pivot and Italy international Manuel Locatelli might just be the man to do it. Locatelli is still not as creative as Pjanić, but he would provide passing from deep that would help Juventus break through teams centrally. Locatelli has gone very close to ousting Jorginho from Roberto Mancini’s Italy team and looks set to enjoy a stellar career in Serie A or possibly even beyond.
A more rounded alternative is presented in the form of Sporting’s Portuguese international João Palhinha. Palhinha has starred at the base of Sporting’s three man midfield and would bring very good passing as well as more of a physical presence in the defensive midfield area. His passing ability, touch on the ball, tackling and reading of the game should make most of Europe sit up and take notice and he will be sought after this summer. Juventus would do well to look at him too.
Another option can be found in house. The 19-year-old Nicolò Rovella signed for Juve in January but was instantly loaned back to Genoa where he had come through the ranks. Rovella is a stylish passer who combines his passing ability with dynamism that sees him break defensive lines by dribbling too. He might benefit from another year at Genoa, where his loan deal expires in 2022, but he looks quality and could add something to Juventus even at this point. He can’t be expected to carry a team of that magnitude at his tender age, though, so a more experienced signing would still be smart to make.
Central midfield
When Juventus lined up for the Champions League final in 2015, they started Claudio Marchisio, Andrea Pirlo, Paul Pogba and Arturo Vidal with Roberto Pereyra on the bench. Vidal left then and Pogba the following summer, but then Miralem Pjanić, Sami Khedira and eventually Blaise Matuidi came in. Today’s crop doesn’t stack up as well, especially in terms of creativity and dynamism. Therefore, this is where Juve need to strengthen the most.
The standout options here are Roma’s Lorenzo Pellegrini and Lazio’s Sergej Milinković-Savić. Pellegrini is proper class and would add creativity to the central core of Juve’s team. He can play as a 10 and as an 8 and is one of Serie A’s best midfielders. He has created 1.8 chances per 90 minutes, more than any Juventus player, despite often playing deeper in midfield. Pellegrini has managed six assists too. It might be hard to prise him away from Roma though, where he is captain and a homegrown hero.
Across the capital, Milinković-Savić remains at Lazio. He has been linked to clubs across Europe every which way since Christmas but Lazio has so far prised him out of a move. He has eight assists this season, and would bring physicality and technical ability on a scale the Juventus team lacks currently. He would be expensive, but he would also be a huge signing for the club. Another statement signing would be to approach Napoli for their Spaniard Fabian Ruiz. The left-footed midfielder would be expensive, but it would be the type of statement signing Juve have previously made.
Matteo Pessina is another option after a brilliant season at Atalanta. The 23-year-old can play as a10 and as an 8. He is not a creator in the mould of, say, Paulo Dybala, but Pessina combines intense pressing with clever runs and smart passing in the final third. He is very much the type of multifunctional midfielder Pirlo likes and, having broken into Mancini’s national team, interest is expected to soar in the coming transfer windows. Bringing a young, hungry, talented midfielder like Pessina would represent clever business from Juventus as he can play a role over the next decade in a variety of midfield roles. Even more of a signing for the future would be Rennes’ Eduardo Camavinga, the 18-year-old who has attracted the interest of every big club in Europe.
The best option might, however, be Udinese’s Rodrigo De Paul. The 26-year-old Argentinian is entering his prime and has been one of Italy’s most consistent creators for years. This season, he has mostly played as an 8 at Udine, but has still created the third most chances in the league with 2.4 key passes per 90 minutes, compared to Chiesa who is Juve’s best creator with 1.7. Additionally, De Paul has contributed five assists but has an xA rating of a whopping 10.38, which is the highest in Serie A. With better players finishing the chances he creates, De Paul’s assist numbers could soar.
All these options could be used in central midfield in a three man midfield, but most would equally work as number 10s, which would definitely help a side needing to add more creativity in central areas to make the team less predictable going forward. An added central threat could also open wings more to capitalise on their preferred chance creating method of crossing.
Attacking midfielders/wingers
He has been in and out of form in recent seasons, but Douglas Costa has qualities very few wingers have. The Brazilian is on loan at Bayern right now, but Juve would do well to bring him back and allow him to thrive in the 1vs1-situations Juventus generate out wide. His pace, trickery and crossing ability would improve Juventus instantly. If Juventus opt to dip into the transfer market for a new winger, Ajax’s Antony and Wolves’ Pedro Neto would be top of the list. Antony’s trickery and Neto’s creativity and goalscoring would certainly improve the squad.
An interesting player Juve could keep an eye on and potentially bring in to play as a number 10 is Cristiano Ronaldo’s compatriot Pedro Gonçalves. Sporting’s 22-year-old has scored 15 league goals for the run away Liga NOS leaders and would be an intriguing addition to this team. Thriving in the space in front of the opposition’s defensive line, Gonçalves could add creativity and goalscoring to a midfield that has struggled to contribute with that this season. He has only had one season at a top club, so it might be sensible to let him have another year in Portugal, but he is someone to keep a close eye on.
Strikers
Cristiano Ronaldo is still one of the most lethal finishers in the world and his record of 24 goals in 25 Serie A games is incredible. As mentioned, Morata has made more assists than anyone in Serie A but he will never be a world class goalscorer. He remains a capable option up front though. If Ronaldo stays, it might be clever to bring in another goalscorer to ease the burden on the Portuguese as he might need to start resting a little more often as he gets older.
Fiorentina’s Dušan Vlahović would be a very sensible addition to the strike force. The Serbian 21-year-old has bagged 13 Serie A goals this season and would bring a unique blend of physicality, link-up play and finishing ability to the Juventus squad. He is not the creator we feel the team is crying out for, but linking the youngster with Ronaldo and allowing him to develop in a team that creates more chances than Fiorentina could see him become one of Europe’s best strikers.
Former Milan striker André Silva has enjoyed a stunning season in Germany and could be a more rounded option to join the club to link up with his compatriot Ronaldo. If Juve would prefer a cheaper alternative then they could look for another free transfer coup by picking up Sergio Agüero. However, the Manchester City striker’s injury record will probably prevent such a deal from happening. Juve would be more sensible to invest in players who can also be crucial in the future, but, of course, Agüero could be a valuable squad member for one or two seasons.
A younger goalscoring sensation can be found in the form of Patson Daka, Red Bull Salzburg’s 22-year-old marksman. The Zambian has scored an outrageous 23 goals in 19 league games for the Austrians. His pace and willingness to run into depth would fit perfectly in at Juventus, especially if they can improve their creativity in central areas.
Adding another striker would see Juve have three very good strikers, as well as Paulo Dybala who is Juve’s best central creator but has struggled with fitness and form this campaign. Rediscovering Dybala’s form of the second half of 2019/20 is crucial if Juventus decide not to dip into the market for new attackers. Having him link play between the lines behind the likes of Ronaldo and Morata could be devastating with the likes of Chiesa and Costa attacking the wide areas.
Conclusion
Juventus are not far off winning leagues and challenging in Europe again, but they probably need some tactical tweaks like the ones we’ve suggested as well as recruiting some more players, especially in midfield. They have a very good squad but it needs some additions. Bringing young, talented players that can be the bedrock for this club for the next decade seems like the sensible thing to do, rather than focussing on finding more experienced players to win here and now. Players like Locatelli, Palhinha, De Paul and Vlahović wouldn’t necessarily mean parting with outrageous amounts of money, especially since players like Rabiot and Ramsey can be offloaded for decent money. Also, Juventus have some outstanding young players in their ranks, with Kulusevski, Rovella, Romero and young midfielder Diego Fagioli all looking likely to be long-term options for the club.
Believing in Pirlo might not be the wrong thing to do since he has shown glimpses of fascinating tactical development, but he needs to be properly equipped with the players to make his vision a reality. Only then can we know if Pirlo really is the man to take Juventus forward towards a new Scudetto. After all, it’s never as bad as it seems.
Comments